The BJP is facing challenges in western Uttar Pradesh as the Lok Sabha elections draw near, with certain dominant castes expressing dissatisfaction and urging their communities to boycott the party. These castes, such as the Rajputs, Tyagis, and Sainis, feel they are underrepresented in the region. For instance, the Rajputs organized a large Mahapanchayat in Saharanpur on April 7, highlighting their grievances including the lack of adequate Lok Sabha tickets despite their significant population share of nearly 10 percent in western Uttar Pradesh. The replacement of General (retd) VK Singh with Atul Kumar Garg in Ghaziabad has further fueled discontent among the community, as only one party ticket was left for 10 percent of the voters in western Uttar Pradesh.
In numerous locations, the Tyagi and Saini communities are organizing panchayats to express their opposition towards the BJP. The BJP’s chances of securing a favorable vote share in each constituency may diminish if the votes are fragmented based on caste divisions. Our examination focuses on the caste dynamics in western Uttar Pradesh and highlights the potential challenges it poses for the BJP in the forthcoming elections.
Saharanpur
Caste equation
Muslim: 42 per cent
Jatav: 17 per cent
Rajput: 8 per cent
Saini: 5 per cent
Gujjar: 5 per cent
Kashyap/Kohar: 4 per cent
Brahmin: 2.5 per cent
Punjabi + Baniya: 8 per cent
Tyagi: 2.5 per cent
Jat: 1.5 per cent
The BSP has nominated Majid Ali, a member of the Muslim Gada community, to run in Saharanpur. Imran Masud, backed by the Opposition INDIA bloc, has been engaging with the dissatisfied Rajput community recently.
Raghav Lakhanpal, representing the BJP, will be competing for the third time and hails from the Sharma-Brahmin community.
The Rajput community’s significant gathering on April 7 in Saharanpur has paved the way for a new caste-based political coalition in western Uttar Pradesh. Imran Masud’s interactions with local Rajput leaders have prompted other parties to also seek the community’s support.
Thakur Puran Singh, a prominent Rajput figure critical of the BJP, expressed concerns about the party distorting Rajput history, denying equal rights in the EWS category, and failing to provide adequate representation in the Lok Sabha. He stated that Rajput leaders are being used to sway the community, but the community has now resolved to teach the BJP a lesson.
The community itself surpasses any single leader in significance. In this instance, the Rajputs will exclusively back those capable of defeating the BJP. Despite holding a 10 per cent vote share in western UP, the party has only granted one ticket to the Rajput community, while other communities have received numerous tickets and ministerial roles in the state government despite their smaller numbers. The Rajputs are feeling misled under the guise of being traditional BJP supporters, but that will no longer be the case,” he elaborated.
Muzaffarnagar
Caste equation
Muslim: 36 per cent
Jatav: 10 per cent
Jat: 8 per cent
Rajput: 8 per cent
Tyagi: 5-6 per cent
Saini: 4 per cent
Kashyap/Kohar: 5 per cent
Gujjar: 3 per cent
The incumbent Sanjeev Baliyan, who has been facing continuous protests in the constituency, has been given a ticket by the BJP. Harendra Malik is the candidate fielded by the Samajwadi Party, while Vedpal Prajapati has been given a ticket by the Bahujan Samaj Party. Despite the significant population, leaders from the Tyagi, Rajput, Saini, and Kashyap communities claim that they are not receiving election tickets from the BJP.
Baliyan has been facing protests from dominant castes for allegedly neglecting them and favoring a specific community.
Mane Ram Tyagi, the president of Akhil Bharatiya Brahman Bhumihar Mahasabha, stated, “The Tyagi community in western UP has a large population. Despite this, the BJP has consistently overlooked us in the past several elections. We have minimal representation in the state assembly, Rajya Sabha, and now none in Lok Sabha. We are organizing meetings across western UP to convey to the party that the assumption of Tyagis being traditional BJP voters will not hold true this time. If we are not given fair representation, we will make them face the consequences.”
“Why is there an overrepresentation of a few communities and underrepresentation of others? This partiality of the BJP will have severe repercussions in the upcoming elections, and we are ready for it. The candidate (Baliyan) has been accused of neglecting all other communities, yet the party has nominated him,” Tyagi informed India Today TV.
Kairana
Caste equation
Muslim: 36 per cent
Jatav: 11 per cent
Jat: 7 per cent
Gujjar: 7 per cent
Saini: 7 per cent
Kashyap: 7 per cent
Rajput: 6 per cent
Incumbent Pradeep Chaudhary, hailing from the Gujjar community, has been granted a ticket by the BJP. Shripal Rana from the Rajput community has received a ticket from the Bahujan Samaj Party, while Iqra Hasan has been fielded by the Samajwadi Party.
The communities of Kashyap, Saini, Jat, and Rajput have been advocating for equal representation in either the state assembly or Parliament. However, the BJP has chosen to repeat candidates from the Gujjar community.
The Sainis, who hold a significant population in certain parts of western UP, have been demanding a ticket from this particular seat.
The Rajput community has expressed dissatisfaction with the alleged controversial and ‘biased’ actions of Pradeep Chaudhary and Nakud MLA Mukesh Chaudhary during the Mihir Bhoj controversy. Additionally, the Kashyap community, which boasts the largest population in the Nakud Assembly area, is also discontented as they have not been given representation by the party across western UP.
In the previous Assembly election, the only Rajput MLA, Suresh Rana, was defeated in Thana Bhawan, leading to dissent among the Rajput community.
The Saini community had requested assembly tickets for Nakud, Gangoh, and Thana Bhawan, but their appeals were denied. Consequently, they were hoping for at least one ticket for a community leader in western UP, but their efforts proved futile.
Meerut
Caste equation
Muslim: 32 per cent
Jatav: 15 per cent
Brahman, Baniya, Punjabi: 13 per cent
Jat: 7 per cent
Gujjar: 4 per cent
Rajput: 6 per cent
Tyagi: 6 per cent
OBC and others: 5 per cent
In Meerut, Arun Govil, known for his role in the Ramayan TV series, has been nominated by the BJP. He hails from the Khatri/Punjabi community. Sunita Verma from the OBC community was the candidate fielded by the Samajwadi Party, while Devvrat Tyagi from the Tyagi community was chosen by the Bahujan Samaj Party.
With Govil replacing the current MP for the BJP, the politics based on caste has escalated in the region, as opposition parties are making efforts to attract voters from different communities.
The Bahujan Samaj Party is aiming for a collective vote from the Muslim-Dalit-Rajput-Tyagi communities, who have expressed their discontent with the BJP. On the other hand, the Samajwadi Party is focusing on winning over the traditional Muslim voters, as well as OBC and other communities who are against the BJP.
Bijnor
Caste equation
Muslim: 41 per cent
Jatav: 15 per cent
Jat: 7 per cent
Gujjar: 6 per cent
Saini: 6 per cent
Rajput: 5 per cent
The Saini community, traditionally a stronghold of the BJP, is now considering other options due to the ongoing lack of representation. Ompal Saini, the president of Akhil Bharatiya Saini Mahasabha, mentioned that the community holds a significant population in certain Lok Sabha seats.
Amroha
Caste equation
Muslim: 42 per cent
Jatav: 13 per cent
Rajput: 8 per cent
Jat: 7 per cent
Khagi: 7 per cent
Saini: 5 per cent
Gujjar: 4 per cent
Others: 4 per cent
The Congress candidate, Kunwar Danish Ali, was previously expelled from the Bahujan Samaj Party before joining the Congress. Kanwar Singh Tanwar from the Gujjar community, who lost to Danish Ali in the previous election, has been given the BJP ticket again. The Bahujan Samaj Party has nominated Mujahid Hussain as their candidate.
The BJP is focusing on securing the Hindu vote, while the INDIA bloc is making efforts to attract Scheduled Caste voters and is also leveraging Danish Ali’s Rajput background to appeal to the community.
Nagina
Caste equation
Muslim: 46 per cent
Jatav: 20 per cent
Rajput 12 per cent
Others: 6 per cent
Dalit leader Chandrashekhar Azad is contesting from the reserved constituency on behalf of his Azad Samaj Party (Kanshiram). Surender Pal, the candidate nominated by the Bahujan Samaj Party, is also vying for the seat and is focusing on garnering support from Muslims and Rajputs, in addition to relying on the traditional Scheduled Caste vote.
Om Kumar is the candidate representing the BJP, whereas Manoj Kumar has been nominated by the Samajwadi Party. This constituency switched from the BJP to the Bahujan Samaj Party in the previous elections.