Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday during his inaugural bilateral visit to Moscow since taking office for the third term, underscoring the significance of the relationship between the two nations.
The 22nd India-Russia Summit is taking place in Moscow against the backdrop of the conflict in Ukraine. The previous summit, the 21st, occurred in New Delhi in 2021, just prior to Putin’s initiation of “special operations” in Ukraine. Following that, the two leaders only met once at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Uzbekistan, during which PM Modi emphasized that it was not the “end of war.”
This summit is occurring as Russia increasingly relies on China due to the conflict, a development that is worrisome for New Delhi given the tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
AGENDA OF THIS SUMMIT?
The two leaders are set to examine the wide range of bilateral relations and share perspectives on current regional and global matters of common interest, as per the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi on July 4.
Additional subjects may involve trade and energy, space collaboration for Gangayaan, and defense supplies. Concerns have been raised regarding the impact on defense deliveries and spares from Russia. Despite progress in the ‘Make in India’ initiative (Russian assault rifles and the India-Russia BrahMos missile), issues related to the reliability of supplies and payment concerns will require attention, according to a report by The Hindu. The recruitment of Indians by the Russian army could also be a topic of discussion during the meeting, as indicated by officials.
While four Indians have lost their lives and 10 have returned, approximately 40 are believed to still be in Russia. New Delhi has requested their prompt repatriation, and this matter is anticipated to be addressed during Modi’s visit.
On July 6, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned that Prime Minister Modi’s visit will encompass a comprehensive agenda, providing opportunities for both formal deliberations and informal conversations between the leaders.
Peskov underscored the strategic significance of Russian-Indian relations, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming visit and describing it as “extremely important and all-encompassing”.
HOW MODI MAINTAINED BALANCE BETWEEN RUSSIA AND WEST
Modi’s trip to Russia on July 8-9 coincides with the NATO Summit in Washington on July 9, where Biden has invited global leaders to demonstrate the transatlantic alliance’s strength on its 75th anniversary. PM Modi participated in the G7 summit outreach in Italy last month, engaging with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Subsequently, he dispatched an official delegation to the Peace Conference in Switzerland, aiming to maintain a geopolitical equilibrium.
WHY IS RUSSIA IMPORTANT TO INDIA?
Diplomacy: Russia has consistently shown its support for India in various international platforms, particularly at the UNSC, regarding matters concerning Kashmir. In 2019, when Article 370 was revoked, Moscow took a firm stance by stating that it was an internal issue of India. It emphasized that any parties involved should prevent any escalation in the region due to the decision. The collaboration between India and Russia extends to forums such as BRICS, RIC, SCO, and G20, where they address common concerns. Russia has backed India’s aspirations for a permanent seat at the UNSC and its participation in different non-proliferation agreements. Moreover, Russia has played a significant role in easing tensions between India and China during the Doklam crisis in 2017 and the Galwan clash in 2020, as reported by The Times of India and The Hindu.
Economy: Russia ranked as India’s 25th largest trading partner during the fiscal year 2021-22, with a total trade value of $13 billion. The overall investment from Russia in India amounted to approximately $14 billion, which notably includes a significant $13 billion investment by Rosneft in Essar Oil. This particular transaction stands as Russia’s most substantial outbound investment and the largest foreign direct investment (FDI) in India, as reported by The Economic Times. Prior to the conflict, the two countries had aimed to achieve a bilateral trade target of $30 billion by the year 2025. Nevertheless, the bilateral trade volume surged to a record high of $65.70 billion in the financial year 2023-24, based on statistics from the Department of Commerce. Furthermore, India secured a 26% stake in Russia’s Vankor oilfield, while a consortium comprising Oil India (OIL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and Bharat PetroResources (BPRL) acquired a 23.9% stake in the same field.
Defence: India relies heavily on Russian and Soviet-made defence equipment, accounting for 60-70% of its arsenal. Despite a slight decrease in Russia’s share of Indian defence imports from 62% to 45% between 2017 and 2022, it remains the largest arms supplier to India, followed by France at 29% and the US at 11%. With agreements in place for various advanced systems like the S400 Triumf Air Defence Missile System and Su-30MKI fighters, Russia is expected to continue as a key partner for India in the coming decades. However, India has also been diversifying its sources by engaging with countries like the US, Israel, France, and South Korea.
THE US-CHINA FACTOR
Russia-China relations have been developing positively since the early 2000s when they resolved their longstanding border dispute. China’s economic growth has led to an increased demand for Russian raw materials, particularly hydrocarbons, which has further strengthened their ties. Both nations share a common opposition to Western dominance and a desire for a multipolar world, which has brought them closer together. Additionally, China has refrained from criticizing Russia for its actions in Ukraine.
India-China relations began to normalize in the 1990s through bilateral agreements in 1993 and 1996 aimed at maintaining peace and tranquility along the border. However, challenges arose due to China’s assertive behavior in the region, the introduction of initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in 2013, border conflicts in 2014, 2017, and 2020, China’s rejection of India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and its involvement in the United Nations Security Council regarding the Kashmir issue.
Following the Crimea crisis in 2014 and the Ukraine conflict in 2022, India has been cautious in balancing its relationships with the United States and Russia, especially as the US seeks to isolate Moscow. India has opposed measures such as Russia’s expulsion from the G20 and has refused to participate in sanctions, despite the risk of secondary sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).