Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) experienced a significant setback in key states, resulting in the loss of its national majority. This outcome marks a notable change in the political landscape that the BJP has dominated for the past ten years.
While the BJP still emerged as the largest party in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament, it fell considerably short of its previous performances in both the 2014 and 2019 elections. As India’s election authorities swiftly counted 640 million votes within a day on Tuesday, the BJP’s diminished results became evident.
In contrast to the previous elections where the BJP secured a clear majority of 543 seats, this time they only managed to secure 240 seats. The halfway mark stands at 272 seats. The opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, won 223 seats, surpassing the expectations set by exit polls. Despite this, the BJP, along with its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), managed to secure 283 seats, indicating that they are likely to form the next government with the support of coalition partners.
However, experts have pointed out that the BJP’s electoral performance has raised concerns about their strategic approach. Throughout India’s lengthy election campaign, Prime Minister Modi, who is known for his charisma and ability to polarize, increasingly resorted to fearmongering. He claimed that the opposition had a plot to hand over the nation’s resources to Muslims, at the expense of the majority Hindu population.
On the other hand, the opposition focused on criticizing Modi’s government’s economic track record. Despite India being the world’s fastest-growing major economy, voters expressed concerns about high inflation and unemployment.
The BJP’s campaign slogan, “Abki baar, 400 paar” (This time, more than 400), aimed for an alliance target of 400 seats and 370 seats for the BJP itself.
However, this ambitious target was seen as overconfident and out of touch with the realities faced by the Indian public. Many people were grappling with soaring prices, joblessness, and income inequality that surpasses even the levels experienced during British colonial rule.
As a result, the BJP’s performance can be seen as a disaster, according to political analyst and columnist Asim Ali. Prime Minister Modi has lost his previously undefeated image and his aura of invincibility is no longer present.
Forming the next Govt. :
The election outcome in 2024 bears some similarities to the 2004 election, where the incumbent BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was expected to win a decisive victory according to exit polls. However, the Congress party narrowly surpassed the BJP in terms of wins and formed the government with its allies.
Nevertheless, it is important to note that the current situation is different from 2004. Despite facing setbacks, the BJP remains the largest party in parliament and is in a position to form the next government in collaboration with its NDA allies. On the other hand, the Congress party, as the largest opposition party, secured only 99 seats, which is less than half of the expected tally for the BJP once all votes are counted.
Prime Minister Modi highlighted this point in his public address on Tuesday evening, emphasizing that the BJP alone has won more seats than all of their opponents combined. This statement was met with enthusiastic chants of “Modi, Modi” from his supporters.
However, the office of the prime minister of India will now depend on the support of two regional parties: the Janata Dal-United, led by Nitish Kumar in Bihar, and the Telugu Desam Party, led by Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh. Both of these parties have previously formed alliances with the Congress party.
While the BJP has made notable progress in southern India, particularly in Kerala where it won its first-ever Lok Sabha seat, its overall numbers were affected by significant losses in the central Hindi-speaking states that it had previously won comfortably.
In Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India and a crucial determinant of national governance, the BJP faced defeat in the Faizabad parliamentary district, which is home to the controversial Ram Temple constructed on the site of the 16th-century Babri Masjid. Prime Minister Modi had consecrated the temple in January.
The BJP’s primary focus during their campaign was the consecration of the Ram Temple, aiming to mobilize Hindu voters. However, they faced a setback as they lost the crucial seat of Amethi, where federal Minister Smriti Irani is now facing potential defeat. In the previous election, Irani had achieved a remarkable victory over Rahul Gandhi, a prominent member of the Gandhi family, with a margin of 55,000 votes.
This year, Gandhi contested from the neighboring Rae Bareli constituency and secured a victory with a margin more than twice the size of Modi’s win in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh.
In total, the BJP managed to secure only 33 seats out of Uttar Pradesh’s 80, which is a significant decline from the 62 seats they won in 2019 and the 71 seats they secured in 2014. The regional Samajwadi Party, a part of the opposition INDIA alliance, won 37 seats, while the Congress party secured six seats.
The BJP also faced losses in Maharashtra, which is India’s second-most politically critical state. As per the current vote count, the INDIA alliance won 30 out of the state’s 48 seats. It is worth noting that Uttar Pradesh is the only state with more seats, totaling 80. In the previous election, the BJP alone had won 23 seats in Maharashtra, with its allies securing an additional 18 seats.
Apart from Maharashtra, three other states that have been the epicenters of India’s agrarian crisis, witnessing major farm protests, also experienced losses for the BJP compared to the 2019 election. These states include Haryana, Rajasthan, and Punjab. It is important to mention that the BJP currently governs the states of Haryana and Rajasthan.
Congress celebrations
Upon the arrival of the initial trends on Tuesday morning, a multitude of Congress supporters flocked to the party headquarters in New Delhi. These supporters proudly displayed white T-shirts adorned with images of Rahul Gandhi on the back, while fervently waving party flags and attentively watching the live broadcast of the results on giant screens.
Suresh Verma, a dedicated Congress supporter, expressed his optimism, stating, “Now, the Indian people will finally have a voice to oppose the oppressive BJP, who have governed us for the past decade. With more seats, we possess a significant influence and a formidable opposition.”
The altered composition of India’s upcoming parliament may also impact the legislative process. Detractors have accused the BJP government of hastily passing laws in parliament without adequate discussions and debates.
According to Shastri, this will no longer be an easy task. “For the BJP, the journey in parliament is undoubtedly going to be much more challenging.”
Furthermore, analysts suggest that a weakened mandate could have repercussions on the functioning of India’s other democratic institutions, which critics argue the BJP has exploited for partisan purposes.
“Under the BJP’s overwhelming majority, India has witnessed the erosion of institutions. The power structure was excessively centralized, and for the survival of democracy, India requires coalition-based governments like these,” Ali emphasized.
What next for the BJP?
Once the initial dust settles following these outcomes, the BJP will engage in introspection, and the prominent duo of Modi and Amit Shah, India’s home minister widely regarded as the prime minister’s deputy, will confront more challenging inquiries.
Shastri from the CSDS mentioned, “There will be queries regarding envisioning Modi as a leader of the coalition, where he will need to heed non-BJP leaders to a greater extent.”
Political analyst Ali also observed that “the BJP misjudged the situation on the ground,” and a group of sycophants surrounding Modi may have caught his party off guard. “It is akin to the king only being fed the stories he wished to hear,” he remarked.
“It is crucial for the BJP to establish a feedback system and distribute power more widely.”
During the past decade under a BJP government with a majority, India has regressed on various democratic indicators amidst allegations of stifling dissent, political opposition, and media. Modi, as prime minister, did not hold any press conferences in the last ten years.
With coalition partners acting as a check on the BJP, there will be “breathing room for Indian civil society and the government’s critics,” as stated by Mukhopadhyay, the biographer.
For many Indian Muslims, the results bring a sense of relief.
Observing the outcomes from his dwelling in northeastern New Delhi, 33-year-old waste picker Akbar Khan expressed his joy. Although all of Delhi’s seats are currently being led by the BJP in trends, Khan mentioned that “the people took to the streets and have contested this election against the [incumbent] government.”
Khan, who also collaborates with waste picker communities in states like Bihar and Jharkhand, stated, “The economically disadvantaged castes and classes are greatly dissatisfied with Modi, and his divisive politics have not yielded any benefits for them.”
As a Muslim, Khan revealed his dismay over Modi’s Islamophobic comments during the re-election campaign, where he equated the community with “infiltrators” and labeled them as individuals “who have more children.”
“Indians needed to vote against.