The absence of the usual white cover and the absence of excited tourists engaging in snowball fights are noticeable. Instead of sledges sliding down snowy slopes, ponies can be seen scattered across a dry, brown landscape.
The snowless winter in Kashmir has had a negative impact on tourism and may result in the postponement of the Khelo India Winter Games. However, the lack of snow in the middle and lower regions of the Himalayas has consequences that extend beyond just tourism and sports.
There is a possibility of water shortage in Jammu and Kashmir this summer as the snowfall replenishes the Jhelum River, its tributaries, and other wetlands. Mukhtar Ahmad, the director of the Indian Meteorological Department in Srinagar, has warned that the situation next summer could become dire due to insufficient water supply for the snow-fed rivers.
Long-term catastrophic scenarios could potentially arise if there is a continued absence of snowfall. According to Mahesh Palawat, the vice-president of metrology and climate change at Skymet, the glaciers will not receive the necessary replenishment, resulting in a faster rate of melting. This could eventually lead to the drying up of snow-fed rivers. The lack of snowfall has already been observed in popular tourist destinations such as Srinagar, Sonmarg, Gulmarg in Jammu and Kashmir, as well as Shimla and Manali in Himachal Pradesh. Even Auli in Uttarakhand has not experienced any snowfall yet. The rising temperatures are evident in Srinagar, where the maximum temperature reached 15 degrees Celsius on Sunday, January 14, surpassing Delhi’s maximum temperature of 16 degrees Celsius. Unusually high temperatures have also been recorded in Ladakh, with Drass in Kargil reaching 9.5 degrees Celsius, almost equivalent to the maximum temperature in Jammu, located in the lower ridges of the Shivalik.
Kashmir’s Winter Tourism in Uncertainty:
The lack of snowfall has created a bleak scenario for popular tourist destinations like Gulmarg, Sonmarg, and Pahalgam. The individuals involved in the hospitality industry and adventure sports in the area have been severely affected. Hotel bookings, particularly in Gulmarg, have been canceled due to the absence of snow, which used to attract a large number of tourists during the winter season. Additionally, winter sports activities that were planned for January have also been impacted in Gulmarg, a hill resort in northern Kashmir that is typically covered in snow at this time of year. According to Rouf Tramboo, the President of the Travel Agents Association of Kashmir, Gulmarg has witnessed a significant decline of 70% in tourist arrivals this year, as reported by The Economic Times. The situation is further exacerbated by the fact that local traders in Jammu and Kashmir heavily invested in adventure sports a few years ago. The setback faced during the peak tourism season will hinder their ability to recover their investments.
The Khelo India Winter Games are overshadowed by a cloud of uncertainty:
The upcoming 2024 edition of the Khelo India Winter Games in Gulmarg, Kashmir is facing a disappointing situation as the town lacks the usual snowfall. This has raised concerns among athletes, coaches, and other stakeholders. The previous editions of the Games were successfully co-hosted by Gulmarg and Leh in Ladakh. However, the situation is similar in Leh and Auli, with freezing temperatures and no precipitation except in the upper reaches of the region. Auli, a winter sports destination in Uttarakhand, has yet to witness any snowfall, although there are predictions of some precipitation in the coming days according to Accuweather.com. Indian winter sportspersons who couldn’t afford to train on European slopes and stayed in India are now worried about the lack of snow. The possibility of postponing the Khelo India Winter Games looms if there is no significant snowfall in the near future. Tramboo, the President of the Travel Agents Association of Kashmir, mentioned that the competitions might be postponed or even canceled if there is further delay in snowfall. Discussions have taken place between the Sports Authority of India, the sports ministry, the federation, and various associations to address these concerns. Based on inputs from meteorological departments across J&K and the Centre, it is anticipated that the Games may need to be rescheduled. If all goes well, with expected snowfall between February 10-15, there is a possibility of holding the Games in the middle of February.
ADVERSE IMPACT ON RIVERS AND PRECIPITATION:
The water cycle in the region and beyond could be affected by the absence of snowfall. The rising temperatures and lack of snow accumulation on glaciers are causing them to shrink and melt at a faster rate. This, in turn, will impact the rivers that flow out of these glaciers. Initially, there may be sufficient water flow due to rapid melting, but if this trend continues, the rivers will gradually dry up. The lack of snowfall not only affects the Himalayan region but also has the potential to impact the recharging of glaciers and the drying up of snow-fed rivers over time. The data from Srinagar shows that previous years with minimal precipitation, such as 2018 and 2015, resulted in dry conditions. This year, January has also seen no precipitation so far, indicating a similar trend.
WHY NO SNOWFALL, THOUGH?
According to the data provided by the weather department, the Kashmir Valley experienced a significant rainfall deficit of 79% throughout December 2023.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has also confirmed that the sky will remain clear until January 15.
IMD scientist Soma Sen Roy, speaking to India Today’s Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) team, suggested that this anomaly could be attributed to El Nino. El Nino is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which has a profound impact on global weather patterns.
Additionally, the absence of a strong western disturbance is another contributing factor to the lack of snowfall. Roy explained that this disturbance typically brings moisture from the Arabian Sea, resulting in snowfall in the mountains.
CLIMATE CHANGE: “EARLY TO SAY”
Skymet’s Palawat from IndiaToday.In stated that the current situation cannot be directly attributed to climate change. In order to determine if it is a result of climate change, data for the next decade is required. “If this pattern persists, then it can be considered as the influence of climate change. However, we must exercise patience and observe,” he further emphasized.
WHEN WILL INDIA SEE SNOWFALL THEN?
Similar to the delayed snowfall experienced in December 2022, the snow finally arrived in January after the western disturbance appeared in the last few days of December.
According to Palawat from IndiaToday.In, models are indicating the possibility of a strong western disturbance approaching the western Himalayas around January 25 or 26. This disturbance may lead to increased intensity and bring rain.
Mukhtar Ahmad from IMD also expressed hope for some precipitation on Tuesday, January 16. He mentioned that there could be rainfall or snowfall after January 25, referring to weather models.
Considering the unusual winter of 2023-2024, it is uncertain whether it was caused by climate change, changes in rain cycles, or if it was simply an exceptional year. However, with forecasts predicting fresh spells of precipitation in Gulmarg and Auli in the upcoming days, and in Kashmir in the following weeks, there is hope for a positive turn of events. We may finally experience some “cold comfort.”
