Hyderabad: In the lead-up to the upcoming Lok Sabha election and state poll, a significant political development is unfolding in Delhi. The ruling BJP is currently deliberating on a potential alliance with a candidate from Andhra Pradesh. This decision comes shortly after Telugu Desam Party leader N Chandrababu Naidu’s meeting with Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP leader JP Nadda. Following suit, Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy of Andhra Pradesh traveled to Delhi to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
On the surface, Mr. Reddy’s meeting with the Prime Minister appears to revolve around discussions regarding the Special Category status for his state, a longstanding demand of his YSR Congress Party and the TDP, as well as central funds and other pertinent issues. However, analysts suggest that this meeting signifies the BJP’s cautious approach, as they carefully weigh their options before committing to either side or maintaining a neutral stance leading up to the elections.
It is likely that any understanding reached between the BJP and either the YSRCP or the TDP (which is allied with actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena in the state, a member of the BJP-led national alliance) will be informal. Regional parties may prefer this approach, as a formal alliance runs the risk of alienating minority voters.
Interestingly, neither Jagan Mohan Reddy nor Chandrababu Naidu desires a public marriage of convenience; instead, a private agreement would be the preferred outcome.
This may align with the BJP’s intentions as well, despite the party not holding significant political influence in the state. In the 2019 Assembly election, the BJP failed to secure a single seat out of the 173 contested.
While a formal alliance with either party may be advantageous, it presents its own set of challenges, particularly in terms of seat-sharing. Both the YSRCP and the TDP are unlikely to willingly concede seats to the saffron party, as it would diminish their potential seats-to-victory ratio.
Considering the BJP’s previous electoral performance and its recent defeat in neighboring Telangana in November last year, the party may not hold a strong bargaining position.
While it appears that a backroom deal is more likely, Chandrababu Naidu’s chances of gaining support are considered to be lower than that of his state rival. The BJP has been giving him the cold shoulder due to his decision to leave the party-led National Democratic Alliance on two occasions.
The most recent instance was in 2018 when he faced pressure from Mr. Reddy regarding the Special Category status issue. At that time, the BJP had stated that the doors were closed forever for the Andhra Pradesh party.
Furthermore, Mr. Naidu has been on the defensive with court cases filed against him, leading him to prefer aligning with the ruling party at the center. As a result, he has been making overtures to the BJP.
This may put Mr. Reddy in the lead, but he is likely to only seek ‘associate member’ status. In fact, Mr. Reddy is very clear that he wants the best possible outcome for his state. He has expressed his hope, as he did before the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, that no party secures a clear majority in the national election. This would provide Andhra Pradesh with the flexibility to negotiate with whichever alliance forms the central government.
Ultimately, it seems that the BJP will emerge victorious regardless of the direction in which the Andhra Pradesh voters lean. As some analysts have noted, the party’s strength in the state will come from the support of Chandrababu Naidu, Jagan Mohan Reddy, and Pawan Kalyan, as all three are willing to back the BJP.
Meanwhile, within the BJP camp, there is divided opinion on how the party should proceed and whether there should be an alliance in Andhra Pradesh. One faction, which includes state unit boss Daggubati Purandeswari, supports forming an alliance. Another group believes that going solo presents an opportunity to establish the party’s presence in the state.
This reasoning is based on the fact that the Congress, like the BJP, has had minimal presence in the state since 2014 and is attempting to revive its fortunes by relying on Mr. Reddy’s sister, YS Sharmila.