For many years, India served as the most steadfast international supporter of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh, providing refuge during her youth as an exile and backing her administration even as public sentiment in Bangladesh turned against its oppressive measures. However, this week, New Delhi’s confidence in the long-serving prime minister resulted in a significant miscalculation. Following weeks of intensifying protests and unrest, Sheikh Hasina sought refuge in India on Monday as anti-government protesters advanced towards her official residence.
The abrupt downfall of her administration, which had lasted 15 years, has created a volatile power vacuum in Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million that India regards as its most reliable regional ally. This development has also hindered New Delhi’s regional strategy at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is striving to mitigate the increasing influence of China. Furthermore, India’s continued support for Sheikh Hasina until the very end may tarnish its reputation among many Bangladeshis.
Ali Riaz, a specialist in Bangladeshi politics at Illinois State University, stated, “India’s unwavering support has safeguarded her from backlash and insulated her from global pressures.”
He further remarked, “This situation serves as a clear indication to New Delhi that they persist in backing a regime with a dismal human rights record, which is entirely marginalized.”
In response to the violence that erupted following Sheikh Hasina’s departure, Indian officials expressed significant concern. Reports indicated over 130 fatalities in Bangladesh on Monday, and S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, cautioned that minorities, particularly Hindus—who constitute the majority in India—were being targeted.
Jaishankar addressed parliament on Tuesday, emphasizing, “India and Bangladesh have maintained an exceptionally close relationship for many decades across various administrations.” He affirmed that India “will inevitably remain profoundly concerned until law and order is visibly reinstated.”
India, with a population of 1.4 billion and an economy valued at $3.5 trillion, stands as a dominant force in South Asia, surpassing the combined size of its neighboring countries. The nation has a complex relationship with its neighbors, particularly concerning security issues.
Indian authorities have expressed ongoing concerns regarding the presence of extremists and the influence of China in Bangladesh, a Muslim-majority nation that is nearly surrounded by Indian territory. They perceive the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, led by Sheikh Hasina’s primary opponent, as being lenient towards Islamism and having closer ties to Beijing.
Certain pro-Indian government social media platforms and news organizations have portrayed the recent unrest in a negative manner, at times suggesting it is part of a Western conspiracy.
India’s connection with Sheikh Hasina is deeply rooted in the events of Bangladesh’s independence war in 1971, during which India intervened to assist her father, the separatist leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.
Following the assassination of most of his family during a coup in 1975, 27-year-old Sheikh Hasina sought asylum in Delhi. She returned to Bangladesh in 1981 and subsequently became the favored leadership option for India.
Sheikh Hasina has played a crucial role in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s initiative to enhance regional economic cooperation and connectivity, particularly in light of the increasing Chinese presence in the area.
India has extended credit lines to Bangladesh totaling $8 billion, surpassing the financial support provided to any other Asian nation. Among the Indian enterprises benefiting from lucrative power supply contracts in Bangladesh is the politically influential Adani infrastructure group.
“Hasina has been supportive of India and is willing to evolve the bilateral relationship,” stated C Raja Mohan, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute in Delhi. “The strategic challenge lies in establishing enduring structural relationships that can withstand changes in government.”
Despite rising domestic discontent regarding her authoritarian governance and human rights issues, Sheikh Hasina was the first leader to meet with Modi following his re-election in June.
India refrained from joining the United States and the United Kingdom in condemning the crackdown on the opposition party, the BNP, in the lead-up to Sheikh Hasina’s re-election scheduled for January. Some activists within Bangladeshi civil society have accused New Delhi of leveraging its influence to protect her administration.
“In recent years, India should have been more perceptive to the emerging trends,” remarked Kanti Bajpai, a scholar specializing in Indian foreign policy. “The Indian government could have started to distance itself from such a close association . . . This has now become a significant issue.”
Sheikh Hasina’s potential decline follows another diplomatic challenge for India in the Maldives, where President Mohamed Muizzu was elected in November on a platform advocating for an “India Out” stance, subsequently leading to the expulsion of a small contingent of Indian military personnel.
In the regions of Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bhutan, India is competing with China for regional influence.
One of India’s pressing concerns is how to address the situation with Sheikh Hasina. Jaishankar confirmed her arrival near Delhi on Monday “on very short notice.”
By facilitating her safe passage just prior to the protesters breaching her residence in Dhaka, India played a crucial role in protecting her from possible violence and averting further disorder in Bangladesh.
However, her ongoing presence may inadvertently strengthen New Delhi’s association with the 76-year-old former prime minister, potentially complicating future relations with the forthcoming Bangladeshi government, according to analysts.
Sheikh Hasina is currently exploring asylum options in a third country, yet her son Sajeeb Wazed informed media outlets that she has not made a definitive choice regarding her destination and intends to remain in Delhi for a brief period. Reports indicate that Jaishankar conveyed to Indian party leaders that she is experiencing a “state of shock.”
The newly appointed interim leader of Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus, a renowned economist and Nobel laureate, has expressed his commitment to restoring stability and developing “a road map to new elections.”
Recent polling in Bangladesh suggests a potential resurgence for the BNP, which is actively seeking to redefine its image as a historical rival of India.
“India is viewed by the BNP as a crucial partner for regional development,” stated Tabith Awal, a member of the BNP executive committee. “Our hope is that the Indian government will move beyond its reliance on a single individual, namely Sheikh Hasina, and engage directly with the citizens of Bangladesh.”
Experts indicate that any party that assumes power in Bangladesh will likely have to maintain a cooperative relationship with its larger neighbor.
“There is considerable concern in New Delhi regarding the future composition of the government,” remarked Shafqat Munir, a senior fellow at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies. “However, geopolitical considerations and geographical realities necessitate that . . . collaboration with India will be of paramount importance.”