New Delhi: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Thursday that a low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal is expected to strengthen and make landfall as a severe cyclonic storm along the coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal by Sunday evening.
This particular cyclone, named Remal as per the naming convention for cyclones in the Indian Ocean region, marks the first cyclone of the pre-monsoon season in the Bay of Bengal.
According to IMD scientist Monica Sharma, the system will develop into a depression over the central Bay of Bengal by Friday morning. It will then further intensify into a cyclonic storm by Saturday morning before reaching the coasts of Bangladesh and West Bengal as a severe cyclonic storm by Sunday evening.
As per the IMD, the cyclone is expected to attain a wind speed of 102 kilometers per hour by Sunday.
The coastal districts of West Bengal, north Odisha, Mizoram, Tripura, and south Manipur have been issued a warning by the Met office regarding heavy rainfall on May 26-27.
Fishermen who are currently at sea are advised to return to the coast and avoid venturing into the Bay of Bengal until May 27.
Scientists have observed that cyclonic storms are rapidly intensifying and maintaining their strength for longer durations due to the warmer sea surface temperatures. This increase in temperature is a consequence of the oceans absorbing a significant amount of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions.
Over the past three decades, the sea surface temperatures have reached their highest levels since the commencement of records in 1880.
Senior IMD scientist DS Pai explained that the increase in sea surface temperatures leads to higher moisture levels, which is conducive to cyclone intensification.
Former Union Ministry of Earth Sciences secretary Madhavan Rajeevan stated that a sea surface temperature of 27 degrees Celsius or higher is necessary for a low-pressure system to develop into a cyclone. Currently, the sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal is approximately 30 degrees Celsius.
Rajeevan noted that the warm conditions in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea create a favorable environment for tropical cyclone formation.
In addition to oceanic conditions, atmospheric factors such as vertical wind shear, which involves changes in wind speed and direction with altitude, also influence cyclone development.
Rajeevan emphasized that if the vertical wind shear is significant, cyclones will not strengthen and may even weaken.
According to meteorological models, the cyclone is not expected to impact the progression of the monsoon.
However, Pai mentioned that there could be some influence on the monsoon in certain regions. He explained to PTI that initially, the system may aid in advancing the monsoon over the Bay of Bengal. Subsequently, it may separate from the monsoon circulation, drawing in substantial moisture and potentially causing a minor delay in the monsoon’s progress in that area.